By SOLOMON KIMANZI
The CBR was recently lowered to 9.75% by CBK. Are we going to party our way into a credit mess, or is this the economic boost it needs?
The Central Bank of Kenya's decision to lower the Central Bank Rate from 10.5% to 9.75% at a time when they are predicting a 5.2% GDP growth in 2025 seems, to be honest, a bit of a plot twist. All of a sudden, everyone is hopeful. The shilling is holding up, tourists are returning, Kenyans in the diaspora are sending money home, and inflation is down to 3.8%. Things appear to be a little better than they were the previous year.
The CBK believes it can ease without causing price chaos because inflation is slowing down. Additionally, the Fed and the ECB, two major players, are tapping the curbs on rate increases, so this action is covered globally.
Bonds and stocks typically receive a boost when interest rates decline. Anyone holding government bonds is smiling because bond yields are likely to decline, which means prices will rise.
Businesses may borrow and grow if loans are more affordable, but banks? Don't be surprised if they start charging for things like insurance or mobile banking fees to make up the difference because their margins are going to be squeezed.
The true beneficiaries are borrowers, particularly MSMEs and those looking for a mortgage. There will be more affordable loans available, but don't count on banks to go crazy overnight. They'll most likely start scrutinizing every loan application because they're concerned about non-payment. If your company is drowning in costly, short-term debt, now's is the time to discuss refinancing with your banker.
That growth goal of 5.2%? Not a complete fantasy, but ambitious. In fact, agriculture is making a comeback, infrastructure is gaining more traction, and people in the private sector are becoming a little more courageous. Let's not fool ourselves, though. Reducing rates does not automatically increase output. We risk creating a credit bubble if everyone only takes out loans to buy cars rather than building factories. Therefore, policymakers must continue to monitor manufacturing, jobs, and exports. Not just quick cash.
In summary, CBK is being both audacious and astute here. It's probably time for businesses to hustle, banks to get creative, and investors to start looking for deals. However, keep in mind that there is no such thing as a free lunch. Maintaining discipline is the true test. Don't spend all of it on short-term gains and neglect the fundamentals: responsible lending, fiscal sanity, and ensuring that the money reaches the people who will need it most. While lower rates are nice, what matters most will be what we do next.
The Writer is a Banker